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2024年中国经济增长5%,怎么看?_我的网站

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一 |     Colombo, Oct 13 (UNI) Sri Lanka needs to establish a credible truth seeking mechanism vis-a-vis the victims of the Tamil separatist war that ended in 2009, Foreign Minister Ali Sabry said in remarks published on Thursday.

Referring to Sri Lanka’s defeat at the UNHRC vote in Geneva, he said he had reiterated Colombo’s unwavering commitment towards advancing, securing and protecting the human rights of its people.

"I must say this, when it comes to war victims in the North, we must establish a credible truth-seeking mechanism within the framework of the constitution," The Island newspaper quoted him as saying.

The contours of the model have to provide relief to the families affected by the war and missing persons’ families, Sabry added.

"Also, it needs to create a platform for war heroes also to present their cases in a fair trial because you can’t put all war heroes into one single pan. Collection of evidence and how it is used in investigation is critically important.

"We must soon develop an indigenous mechanism acceptable to the international community for this purpose.

"What we are going to showcase at the next UNHRC sessions must be free of smoke and mirrors or else we will lose even more votes, and it will have far-reaching negative effects on the country’s credibility in terms of accountability and the obligations assumed by Sri Lanka under international human rights treaties."

Sabry made it clear that Sri Lanka's Foreign Minister was only a marketing guy for Sri Lanka at UNHRC sessions, the Island reported.

"So, I myself or any other Foreign Minister must have a product that we can sell to the international community. How can you market a product that they won’t buy? So let’s create a marketable product without procrastination."

Human rights activists have accused successive Sri Lankan governments of doing little or nothing to bring to justice those in the military accused of killing thousands of innocent Tamils in the war against the Tamil Tigers which ended in May 2009.

Speaking to journalists on a programme telecast on Hiru TV, Sabry -- a former Finance Minister -- said it was good that there was going to be court case on how Sri Lanka's economy came to a grinding halt.

He said the decisions taken to unrealistically hold the exchange rate, the rapid exhaustion of foreign reserves to defend the rupee and the persistent assertion on a home-grown solution to the foreign exchange crisis instead of seeking timely assistance from the IMF led to an almost empty treasury.

Asked about economic decision making at present, he said: "President Ranil Wickramasinghe has extensive macroeconomic prudence and always follows the ratio of any expenditure to Gross Domestic Product and ensures that there is income to provide for any fund allocation.”

UNI MR。    1月17日,国家统计局发布了2024年中国宏观经济数据,大家最为关注的经济增速最终录得5%的增长,分季度看,一季度增长5.3%,二季度4.7%,增长4.6%,四季度5.4%。

二 | 完成了年初预定的目标,经济总量也首次突破了130万亿,达到1349084亿元。那么,怎么看待5%这个数据?首先,对于2024年中国经济能够完成5%这个目标,说实话,确实来之不易。特别是考虑到前三个季度平均增长只有4.8%的情况下,通过政策的调整,4季度的增速反弹至5.4%,四季度环比增长达到1.6%,确实不容易。这个数据,放到全球主要经济体里,也肯定是排在前列的。

三 | 所以,这个成绩我认为值得肯定。第二,从三驾马车和主要指标来看。2024年全年,社会消费品零售总额达到487895亿元,比上年增长3.5%,就3.5%的增速而言,当然是比较低的,消费的疲弱也是2024年中国经济面临的最大问题之一;固定资产投资514374亿元比上年增长3.2%,其中基建增长4.4%,制造业投资增长9.2%,房地产开发投资下降10.6%。也就是说,房地产投资下降10.6%,是投资增速低的主要原因。扣除房地产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长7.2%。2024年进出口总额438468亿元,增长5.0%。其中,出口254545亿元,增长7.1%,无论是进出口总额,还是出口,都创了历史新高。可以说,尽管2024年国际环境复杂,但出口依然表现优秀,中国的外向型的出口企业面对国际复杂环境的应对能力确实值得肯定。最后,从物价看,CPI全年微涨0.2%,进一步显示内需不足的基本面。第三,从2024年中国经济面临的问题看。毫无疑问,房地产的深度调整,以及引发的一系列效应,比如地方债的问题,仍然是影响中国经济的主要因素。2024年中国经济的主要问题是内需不足,而内需不足的表现之一就是在房地产的深度调整之下,消费和投资表现都比较弱。

四 | 尽管9月底,我们对房地产政策进行了大幅度的调整,出台了一系列稳地产的措施,从市场的表现看,一二线城市市场明显回暖。但是,市场整体的数据仍然处在下行通道。房地产开发投资下降10.6%,是近三年来下降幅度最大的,而且第四季度降幅并未减缓;房地产销售仍然是两位数的下滑,新房开工面积下降幅度超过20%,绝大多数城市的房价依然处在调整区间,全年土地出让金处在3万多亿的低位。要实现“止跌回稳”,确实还需要政策加力。另外,地方债的问题,以及企业经营风险,也是影响2024年中国经济的主要因素。第四,2025年,中国经济的目标,我预计不会低于5%,这是实现中华民族伟大复兴需要的基本速度。考虑到2025年国内外环境和挑战,应该说更加复杂。且不可因为2024年完成了预期的目标就掉以轻心。2025年,中国经济更加不易。一定要按照去年年底中央经济工作会议的定调,宏观政策要更加积极有为,要稳住楼市股市。特别是地产,要出台更加有力的政策。2025年我最大的担心不是特朗普如何,我最大的担心依然是房地产,房地产稳住的重要性和难度依然被低估。尽快通过加码政策,实现房地产的止跌回稳, 是2025年中国经济全面回暖的前提和基础。最后,我想提醒,大历史在转变,我们今天的环境确实和过去不一样了,国际国内非常复杂。

五 | 中国的宏观政策和经济学的基本理念也要随着环境的变化而变化。从经济的拉动力而言,依靠投资和出口拉动的时代结束了,必须下决心提升消费,下决心搞创新,不管美国是否打压我们的高科技,我们自己都必须走创新道路。我们的宏观政策和我们的政治经济学要围绕消费和创新来构建新的逻辑,这是当务之急。要认识到大历史在转弯,要认识到经济周期和过去完全不同,要有新的思维和增长模式。最近在读供给学派的创始人吉尔德的著作《后资本主义生活:财富的意义、经济的未来与货币的时间理论》,我认为这本书是人工智能时代,最重要的经济学著作,他提出的“财富就是知识,增长就是学习”的论点可谓振聋发聩,在全球角逐人工智能制高点的情况下,中国经济要房企投资曲线,回归学习曲线,通过创新爬升到价值链的高端,而不是重复过去的道路。就此而言,我希望,2025年,是中国经济真正告别过去模式的元年!。

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Published on:12:20:45


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